Outbreak size distributions in epidemics with multiple stages
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Outbreak size distributions in epidemics with multiple stages
Abstract. Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical multistage susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) infection process. In the infinite-population limit, we compute the outbreak size distributions and show ...
متن کاملThe effect of superspreading on epidemic outbreak size distributions.
Recently, evidence has been presented to suggest that there are significant heterogeneities in the transmission of communicable diseases. Here, a stochastic simulation model of an epidemic process that allows for these heterogeneities is used to demonstrate the potentially considerable effect that heterogeneity of transmission will have on epidemic outbreak size distributions. Our simulation re...
متن کاملEpidemics with general generation interval distributions.
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic effects dominate and show that epidemics tend to happen faster than deterministic calculations predict. If an outbreak is sufficiently large, stochastic effec...
متن کاملRobust outbreak surveillance of epidemics in Sweden.
Outbreak detection is of interest in connection with several diseases and syndromes. The aim is to detect the progressive increase in the incidence as soon as possible after the onset of the outbreak. A semiparametric method is applied to Swedish data on tularaemia and influenza. The method is constructed to detect a change from a constant level to a monotonically increasing incidence. If seaso...
متن کاملCompact pairwise models for epidemics with multiple infectious stages on degree heterogeneous and clustered networks.
This paper presents a compact pairwise model describing the spread of multi-stage epidemics on networks. The multi-stage model corresponds to a gamma-distributed infectious period which interpolates between the classical Markovian models with exponentially distributed infectious period and epidemics with a constant infectious period. We show how the compact approach leads to a system of equatio...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment
سال: 2012
ISSN: 1742-5468
DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/2012/07/p07018